Hall of Fame Foursome?

Greg Maddux and the San Diego Padres visit Atlanta Tuesday night for the first time this season, reuniting the dominant three starting pitchers from the Braves 1990s National League dynasty. Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Maddux were the core of baseball's finest rotation for the better part of a decade.

The three are also winding down their respective careers. Glavine and Smoltz have each spent time on the disabled list this year as their 40+ bodies wear down. Maddux has struggled on the mound with 2-3 record and an ERA over four. It is conceivable that all three will hang up their cleats at the end of the 2008 season which begs the question:

Will Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux enter the Hall of Fame together in five years?

To take it one step further, what if Bobby Cox walked away from the Braves after this year as well? Could it be an Atlanta Braves ceremony in Cooperstown?

What an event that would be! It seems only right that all three pitchers would enter side by side. They are great friends off the diamond and forever linked on it. Cox was the architect of the Braves dynasty, believing in young pitchers Glavine and Smoltz through their early struggles. The four Atlanta Braves won a championship together in 1995 and made an indelible mark on the game individually and collectively.

Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Bobby Cox are all first ballot Hall of Famers. No doubt. Glavine is a two-time Cy Young Award winner and World Series MVP. He is one of only five left-handers to win 300 games in a career. Maddux has won 349 games in his career and won more than any other pitcher in the 1990s, including Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson. Maddux won four straight Cy Young awards from 1992-95 (sandwiched by Glavine in 1991 and Smoltz in 1996) and seventeen, yes seventeen, straight Gold Gloves. Bobby Cox is the 4th winningest manager in baseball history, four-time Manager of the Year and, of course, has been ejected more than any other person in MLB history.

The question mark is John Smoltz. In fact, there are actually two questions: 1) Is he a Hall of Famer? 2) Is he a first ballot Hall of Famer?

Smoltz owns a Cy Young Award, has over 3,000 career strikeouts and is the only pitcher in baseball history with over 200 wins and over 150 saves. He has aged better than Glavine or Maddux and remains the most dominant of the three.

According to Bill James' Hall of Fame Monitor, Smoltz is a Hall of Fame cinch. His career statistics are more impressive than those of Don Sutton, Phil Neikro, Juan Marichal, Don Drysdale, Fergie Jenkins and Catfish Hunter - all Hall of Famers.

The question of Smoltz's first ballot status is trickier. There is no aspect of his career that screams first ballot. He lacks 300 wins. He lacks multiple Cy Youngs. He lacks league or World Series MVPs.

He can boast 3,000 strikeouts - only 16 pitchers can do that. He is only the 2nd player to win 20 games in a season and have 50 saves in a season. How the voters look at Smoltz's bullpen career (and perhaps the injuries that sent him there) will determine whether or not he is a first ballot Hall of Famer. Smoltz was as dominant a closer as the game has seen, a role that is getting more credibility by the year. He was better than Sutter, Gossage or Rollie Fingers during the time he spent in the bullpen.

The X Factor is whether the voters will be influenced by the inclusion of Glavine, Maddux and Cox. Will they be more likely to vote for Smoltz as well or hesitate to honor him with first ballot status just to create a special occasion at the induction?

My gut tells me that Smoltz is not a first ballot guy. My gut also tells me that Smoltz is not going to retire unless his arm troubles continue throughout the year. I'm inclined to think Cox is still not quite ready to give up the game either, though his appeal in the process is not as great as the three pitchers. Regardless, the four of them (along with Chipper Jones and John Schuerholz) will all represent the great Atlanta teams of the past 17 years.