Louisville Preview

I'm almost finished with my student comments, but I'm putting them aside for a moment to preview Tennessee's opponent tonight - The Louisville Cardinals.

The Cardinals are the main topic of this week's college basketball podcast here if you want to hear about Pitino's team. There is no doubt that Louisville is flying below the radar right now, probably for the same reason as the Vols. They are both stuck playing each other just for a chance at UNC.

The other reason Louisville has not been as hyped as other teams is because they got off to a rotten start to their season, losing games to BYU, Dayton and Purdue before an opening Big East loss to Cincinnati. It turns out that none of those losses were that bad, but for a team that was in many expert's Top 10, they were surprising.

Louisville also several injuries during this time that took a greater toll than was previously thought. The healthy version of the Cardinals have been fantastic. They went 14-4 in the brutal Big East with a nine game winning streak at one point. They lost their last two games before the NCAAs to Georgetown and Pittsburgh, neither of which were bad losses (Pitt went on to win the Big East tournament).

Bottom line - this is a good Louisville team. There is a reason they are a slight favorite over the higher seed Vols.

We all know about the Rick Pitino press. They will trap, harass, and pester the Vols in the backcourt as well as any team Tennessee has played all year. What might surprise you is what happens next: the Cardinals will drop into a 2-3 zone. Pitino has played a bunch of zone this year because a) his team is long and quick (like the Syracuse team that won the championship) b)it was easier to use during the injuries and c) it is working. Louisville is forcing bad shots, keeping team at low shooting percentage and even getting about eight steals/game out of their zone.

Tennessee is a different animal, however, than most college basketball teams. It can shoot the lights out with Lofton, JuJuan Smith and Wayne Chism hitting three-pointers. It can also use Tyler Smith in the high post as one of the best passing bigs in the game. I don't know what Pitino will try tonight - most teams have been afraid of zoning the Vols because of the shooters, but the zone is what has Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen this year. It will interesting to see.

David Padgett will be your least favorite players within minutes of the opening tip. He is the key for Louisville (yes, he is related to Scott Padgett of Kentucky fame). He is their leading scorer, but he is more important as a passing big man. The 6'11 senior can pass, score inside and step back to hit the outside jumper. He also whines and cries about every injustice not whistled by the officials, so he will get on your nerves quickly. I imagine Chism will spend the majority of his time on the floor guarding Padgett, a match-up that favors the Volunteers.

Terrence Williams is a nice, but inconsistent player. He is a stat-sheet stuff like Tyler Smith, but has games of little/no production from time to time.

Derrick Caracter was a highly-recruited player who now comes off the bench for Louisville. He is instant offense and an impressive specimen on the inside. The battle down low will be important for both teams as Louisville counts on scoring and production from its post players, but Tennessee is deep and aggressive down there as well.

Louisville's guards are not as strong as usual. Earl Clark logged major minutes early in the year, but has settled into a 28-30 minutes guy who is prone to turnovers. Edgar Sosa has yet to emerge as the player I think he can be and seems to get into Pitino's doghouse from time to time. Jerry Smith looks like an old man and plays a little like one too. He can make the three (shooting 50% in the tournament from outside), but is not a creative player like Sosa or Williams.

If Tennessee wins, it will:
a) handle Louisville's pressure
b) turn over the sometimes shaky Louisville guards
c) contain/frustrate Padgett
d) knock down some outside shots - don't expect as much pounding it into the post as the American or Butler games.

If Louisville wins, it will:
a) handle Tennessee's pressure
b) turn over the inconsistent Tennessee guards
c) contain Lofton (who always seems to burn Kentucky teams)
d) pound Tennessee inside with Padgett, Caracter and Williams

Prediction - Vols in a tight one. I don't expect a high-scoring affair because of the stakes and the Louisville zone. This could be the most entertaining game of the entire tournament.