2008 Atlanta Braves Preview

Losing has become the norm again for the Atlanta Braves. After 14 straight years of winning baseball, including a World Series championship in 1995, the Braves have struggled over the last two seasons. They have lost games to superior teams, key players to free agency and injuries, and their status as the "team to beat" in the N.L. East.

This past off-season was full of losses as well. Andruw Jones left behind an Atlanta career of sporadic greatness for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Veteran shortstop Edgar Renteria was lost in a trade to the Detroit Tigers. Most significantly, the Braves lost the architect of the 1990s/2000s dynasty when John Schuerholz gave up his general manager role to Frank Wren. For a team that lost too much over the past two years to make the playoffs, the off-season was the last place Braves fans wanted to see more losing.

Did I mention that the Mets signed Johan Santana over the off-season? Or that the Washington Nationals move into their new stadium this year? Or that the N.L. East Champion Philadelphia Phillies are still loaded with the same young talent that played so well last year? Or that the Florida Marlins...okay, the Braves are guaranteed to finish no worse than 4th in the division. The 2007 off-season had a similar theme to the regular season - too much losing.

The forecast for the 2008 Atlanta Braves is a cloudy one. What is it going to take for sunshine to emerge from the clouds? What could turn this cloudy season into a torrential downpour? Who could be the metaphorical umbrella in the storm of suicide squeezes and cans of corn?

Hello, Goodbye

Gone - Andruw Jones, Edgar Renteria, Willie Harris, Octavio Dotel
Arrived - Tom Glavine, Mark Kotsay

Pitching Staff

The best hope for October baseball in Atlanta rests on the aging arms of John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton. The Braves can rely on Tim Hudson for 200+ innings and 15-18 wins, but the rest of the rotation is, well, old. Smoltz has been defying nature for the past few years, partly due to his stint as the Braves closer. The addition of Tom Glavine is fun in a nostalgic sense, but the future Hall of Famer's best days are behind him. Mike Hampton has not been healthy in two years and there is no reason to expect him to stay healthy this year (shocker: he is already nursing a sore hamstring).

The X Factor for the Braves' staff this year is newcomer Jair Jurrjens. Acquired from the Tigers in the Renteria deal, the 22-year old has been impressive this spring. He could compete with lefty Chuck James or Hampton for the final spot in the Braves rotation.

If Jurrjens emerges as a legitimate, inning-eating starter, the Braves could have a strong staff. Tom Glavine might be the 4th starter on the staff. Mike Hampton might be an after-thought (which is the third most common adjective for him behind "over-paid" and "fragile"). Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes and Buddy Carlyle could continue to mature as spot-starters instead of counted-upon cogs. There is some real depth on the Braves staff, but not the level of quality of the league's elite teams.

The Braves bullpen, like its starting staff, has the potential to be really good and the potential to be really bad. Rafael Soriano is the closer. He has closer stuff, but gives up the long ball like Jose Canseco gives up names of users. Pete Moylan had a terrific 2007 and will be the set-up man unless Mike Gonzalez reemerges as the pitcher the Braves thought they were getting when they dealt Adam Larouche to the Pirates. It remains to be seen whether Gonzalez can recover from Tommy John surgery.

Batting Line-up & Defensive Positions

Bobby Cox is known to switch up his batting line-up with regularity, so there is some doubt about how he will order this year's squad and for how long he will stick with it. Expect the Braves to start the year like this:

1) Yunel Escobar (SS)
2) Mark Kotsay (CF)
3) Chipper Jones (3B)
4) Mark Teixeira (1B)
5) Jeff Francoeur (RF)
6) Brian McCann (C)
7) Matt Diaz (LF)
8) Kelly Johnson (2B)
9) pitcher

The Braves might move Kelly Johnson into the 2nd spot of the order for a more traditional hit & run option, send Kotsay down to the 5th or 6th spot and have Diaz getting on base before the pitcher's spot. When speedster Josh Anderson plays for Diaz or Kotsay, he will bat either lead-off or 8th. Omar Infante, acquired with Jurrjens in the Renteria deal, will be the Braves' utility infielder who will usually bat 8th before the pitcher.

No doubt - this line-up can score runs. It consistently put up 5-6 runs a game last season. The loss of Renteria is off-set by the excitement of Yunel Escobar who gets on base and makes thing happen when he does. Andruw Jones was awful at the plate last year, so Mark Kotsay can only help. He is a better contact hitter than Jones even though he is clearly a defensive downgrade. Beyond that, the line-up is the same as the one that pounded pitchers in 2007.

Forecast

As a lifelong Braves fan, I want to believe in this team. I believe in Bobby Cox (who, by the way, was ejected during the fifth paragraph of this article), Chipper Jones, Mark Teixeira, John Smoltz and the young talent on this team. If guys like Hudson, Jerrjens, Soriano, Escobar, Francoeur and McCann step up, the Braves could contend in the paltry National League.

On the other hand, I don't believe in Mike Hampton or Tom Glavine at this point in their careers. I was hoping for Torii Hunter or Mike Cameron instead of Mark Kotsay. I wonder how much longer Chipper can keep hitting .300 and how Rafael Soriano will handle being the full-time closer over the course of an entire season.

The likely scenario for the Braves is a .500 season. There is too much talent for the Braves to dip much below 80 wins, but too many weaknesses to expect much more. The Braves will finish 3rd in the N.L. East and miss the playoffs for the third straight year.

Tomorrow - My main man Eric Lerch previews the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers.