Lerch's Guide to Fantasy Success

Let's face facts... Most of us play fantasy sports to experience the success and sense of achievement that eludes us in our pitiless daily lives.  A victory in one's fantasy league brings prestige, bragging rights, and sometimes even financial rewards.  When your fantasy team loses because Brian Westbrook fell to the ground on the one yard line to allow the Eagles to run out the clock against the Cowboys, the emotional effects can be devastating.

As the defending champion of the "The Only League that Matters" in football and the current leader with a consistent 25 point cushion of "Below the Mendoza Line" in baseball, I think I have become Carpenter's fantasy ringer.  He sets up these leagues for his friends and family to have some sporting competition, and this guy from Texas keeps dominating.  Therefore, I've decided to put down some of my keys to success in fantasy sports as an olive branch to my competitors that read this blog...

1) "Value of High Draft Picks - Consistency Counts" - The current fantasy trend is to load up on running backs because you can always find quality receivers and quarterbacks later on.  While this is true, the fact is that finding those guys is a bit of a crap shoot, and consider that starting running backs are dropping like flies with injuries in the current NFL.  So, do you really want to pass on Peyton Manning, who is guaranteed to throw for a trillion yards every year, for Rudi Johnson, who is "projected" to run for 1200 mythical yards, and take your chances with Jake Delhomme.  Really, think about that one for a second.  Franchise quarterbacks and receivers are hard to find - Grab them while you can.

2) "Quarterbacks - 2008 is 2003" - Any passer can have a fluke year, but statistical consistency in the NFL is difficult to find.  You want to find quarterbacks who have performed well over the long run.  Right now, there is Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and everyone else.  If you can't get one of those two guys, you have three options.  One, my current choice, grab what you think is the franchise quarterback of the future, and pray to God something terrible happens to Jessica Simpson. Two, find a consistent veteran who may not have the stats of a Brady, but will usually get the job done, like a Donovan McNabb.  Of course, the drawback here is most of these guys tend to be injury prone.  Third, draft a young quarterback who has all the scouts and press saying the right thing, and may have even gotten hot in the playoffs so everyone thinks he's better than he is, and convince yourself he's the franchise quarterback of the future.  I'm not going to say any names here, but it rhymes with "Eat my Fanning" and I will enjoy watching him throw 10 picks in his first three games this year.  I hope you draft him.

3) "Runningbacks - 2008 is NOT 2003" - We've all been playing fantasy football for a while, right.  Well, who remembers the big debate in 2001? Well, it was "Should I take Faulk, James, or Tomlinson?"  (For the record, the correct answer that year was Faulk, and I took him) Alright, two of those guys are still alive, 10,000 tackles later.  Have mercy on your soul if they are still on your fantasy team.  Running backs have a short shelf life, and the sooner you realize this, the better.  Subtract one round for every year a back is over the age of 25.  Fill up your bench with a stable of young backs, and, eventually, everyone in front of them will be injured. 

4) "Two Back Systems - Good for real teams, bad for fantasy teams" - As a football coach, I can't emphasize enough how important it is to have two quality backs on a team.  You're really lucky if you have a big powerful runner and quick little guy so you can name them "Thunder and Lightning" and make t-shirts for everyone.  However, in fantasy, I avoid two back systems like the plague.  Because fantasy scoring is so biased towards scoring touchdowns, the chances of your guy being the one to carry the ball into the end zone are divided in half.  Even the so-called "goal line runners" who go in and just score touchdowns are unreliable because they gain 16 yards and no scores as often as they gain 32 yards and two scores.

- "The Maurice Jones-Drew Corollary" - The only exception to this rule is the running back who catches a ton of passes out of the backfield, doubling his opportunities to score points and thus negating the two back rule.  However, remember rule #1 here - It's not the Reggie Bush Corollary because he is way over valued.  Picking up Jones-Drew on waivers two years ago brought me a title.

5) "Two Receiver Systems - Good for real teams, good for fantasy teams" - NFL coverages tend to be focused on a single receiver.  Therefore, for a passing team, the second receiver becomes a great option for your fantasy team.  While Chad Johnson gets the press coverage, TJ Hooshmansomethingorother has been racking up incredible fantasy numbers.  We all saw what happened last year with Reggie Wayne's numbers.  Notice the emphasis is on "passing teams." The number ONE receiver on the Bears is a terrible option, let alone the second.

6) "Kickers suck in real life and fantasy" - No explanation needed on this one, right?